Predict the grain output of Xinjiang Province based on the time series model

Yang Xia

Abstract


In this paper, The variation trend for the grain output of Xinjiang
Province has been analyed and forecased based on the time series model and
tendency forecast model. The mathematical models are established by using both the
historical data from 1949 to 2011 and the weight analysis of each part are given
attention, So the predicted results are more reasonable. Furthermore, the problems of
the grain production in Xinjiang Province are pointed out. Finally, the suggestions
and conclusions are given in view of the problems.

Keywords


Time series model ; fitting; Trend prediction ; Logistic model

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